The Cromford Report which covers the Greater Phoenix resale market provided the following monthly market update and forecast. “For the monthly period ending March 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $273.22 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 1.9% from the $268.24 we now measure for March 15. Our forecast range mid-point was $258.68, so this month we were way too pessimistic. The actual result was 5.6% above the forecast and well above the 90% confidence range. This is the largest forecast miss we have witnessed in 20 years, and I guess we should be pleased that it missed so far to the upside. Despite the advance of the CMI, we did not expect the average closed $/SF to recover so quickly and so soon.
On March 15 the pending listings for all areas and types show an average list $/SF of $300.43, up 2.5% from the reading for February 15. Among those pending listings we have 99.3% normal, 0.1% in REOs and 0.5% in pre-foreclosures. This is similar to last month.
Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on April 15 is $279.01, which is 2.1% above the March 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this midpoint, i.e. in the range $273.43 to $284.59. Our forecast implies that prices (average $/SF for all areas & types) will have risen by 5.6% over 3 months from Jan 15 to Apr 15.”
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